Archive for the ‘markets’ Category

Is Quantitative Easing working?

Sunday, August 30th, 2009

The US Government has embarked in unfamiliar territory in order to end the financial crisis: quantitative easing.

“Easing” just stands for making life easy for the banks, and indirectly for everyone, from an economic standpoint. “Quantitative” stands for quantity.

Ok, let us stop the bullshit for a minute. I find that one of the miracles of this new millennium is that a new widespread trend has emerged. The skill to rename old things with new names so that they seem to be completely novel and modern technologies, whereas there are simply rehashed old techniques. So to put it in plain English, quantitative easing simply means to print money.

This is certainly not new, and monarchs and emperors have used it since ancient time, any time they lacked the means to conduct the policies they wished to follow. Remember that Napoleon sold Louisiana (which was about one third of the United States by then) for a meager twenty million. So at least he had something to sell to finance his wars.

Earlier French Kings who did not have this luxury would routinely burn their Jewish bankers in the public square in order to cancel the royal debts and to get free assets in the process. Even earlier, since Antiquity the Royal Mint was the ideal medium to secretly change the composition of coins, hence creating many new coins from fewer old ones. When note bills became in use, it was much easier (literally and figuratively), as Government just had to go to the printing machine to get money.

Technically it is done differently nowadays thanks to the use of the digital money market and of sophisticated Central Bank operations. It is all a matter of orchestrating complicated monetary transactions through computers, networks and data center. Money is simply equivalent to how some bits are organized on some magnetic disks at some obscure data center.

Joke aside, financial markets have recovered nicely all over the World, not in small part because of the quantitative easing engineered from the United States. So far it seems to work.

Even though many non-believers doubt that this policy can work in the long term, it is clear that the recent economic maelstrom has lost is intensity and that a gentle global recovery is under way.

Following the Asian crisis in the late 1990s, a similar policy of quantitative easing was conducted by the Japanese Central Bank until 2006, adopting a zero interest rate policy, expanding banks’ balance sheets and purchasing long-term bonds. But this stimulus failed to materialize into any visible economic benefit, as banks continued to refuse to lend money even though that where overwhelmed with it.

This is what Keynes calls the liquidity trap, i.e. when interest rates are near zero, no more impetus can be gained from such monetary policy because interest rate cannot go below zero (usually). Fortunately the American and Japanese economies and cultures are radically different, so there is no need to believe that what occurred in the Land of the Rising Sun will repeat in America.

In particular their size and global economic importance differ, and one is a major exporting country whereas the other a major importing country. Also the US Government has adopted a wider policy than their Japanese counterparts.

It seems to work for now, but it is too early to tell the long-term consequence of financial easing in the USA. As his leading advocate, it is certainly one of the main arguments on how president Obama will be judged in the history books.

Regulating financial markets based on human nature

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

Our new President Barack Obama is a man of action and reform.

After the blood bath taken by investors in nearly all market segments in recent history, one of Barack Obama’s efforts focusing on financial markets centers on his proposed “Consumer Financial Protection Agency”.

Interestingly the idea of this project is to apply the findings of behavioral finance to ensure transparency, simplicity and fairness to all market participants. The recent financial meltdown has demonstrated that some of our traditional human biases have exacerbated the risks taken by many individuals, leading to disastrous live-changing experiences for the most unfortunate.

Behavioral finance is a rather new field in finance. It was started as an independent methodology within finance about twenty years ago, even though some of its findings were known much earlier. But it took a long time for this “science of human behavior applied to finance” to become accepted amid academic circles. President Obama’s endorsement is a testimony of how much this modern approach has become mainstream.

This program falls under the nominee for heading the White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, University of Chicago Professor Cass R. Sunstein. Professor Sunstein published “Nudge” last year with co-author Professor Richard H. Thaler, one of the leading scholars of behavioral finance. This very well received book describes how human behavior sometimes leads to suboptimal decisions in investing, health care, education and most venues of modern live.

This is a well known fact to all sales people who tend, consciously or not, to exploit these patterns in order to trigger a sale, sometimes using unfair or misleading tactics. For example risks that are hard to understand seem unlikely to occur (ask any mortgage-backed securities investor). Or it is believed that people providing more details tend to be honest (ask any Madoff investor).

Another hilarious example of how we human are dominated by such behavioral biases is that the same individuals who will omit investing in a 401k plan if they must opt in, will participate in it if they must opt out in order to cancel it. Even though the end result is the same, people behave differently if they need to act or not to act to achieve the identical final result.

It remains to be seen how effective this new regulatory approach will be. Wall Street is known to adjust to new rules faster than they get printed. But at least there is a general awareness of the issue of small biases leading to big losses in the Government, and maybe at some point in the public.

Status quo on rates in the euro zone

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

The European Central Bank (ECB) has not changed its interest rates today, resisting pressure for a monetary gesture to stimulate a European economy that shows some early signs of recovering from the recession.

The ECB also said that it will make bond repurchase directly from the market from July to June 2010. The Bank of England is also observing a similar monetary status quo, keeping its intervention rate to 0.5%. Denmark announced a symbolic rate cut of 10 basis points to 1.55%.

The Bank of England said that it is continuing its program of acquisition of £125 billion ($143 billion) in Bonds to stem the recession.  ECB’s Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet announced Thursday the operating procedures of the operation for the European Union. The purchases, totaling €60 billion euros will be distributed throughout the euro area and it will be direct repurchases.

Considering that the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, Trichet also believe that after a very weak first quarter, the economic contraction for the remainder of the year will be probably at less severe rates.

The Federal Reserve which, as the BoE and the Bank of Japan has cut rates below the threshold of 1% corresponding to the refinancing rate of the ECB is already examining the possibility of increasing rates to curb the enormous impact of its massive easing of the recent months.

The average interest rate on the planet in general has never been so low, and Central Banks will soon have to face the difficult issue of how to absorb the massive liquidity that has flown into the markets during the past year.

Today’s signs of slowing of the recession included unemployment numbers in the U.S. that fell for the third week in a row and retail sales in the euro zone that rose in April for the first time in five months, which bodes well for consumer spending despite the recession, even if this recovery is slow.

These good news led to today’s rally on Wall Street ( the Dow Jones was up 0.86%). The bull market continues, with its corollary of greenback weakness (EUR/USD=141.82).

Other good macroeconomic news were that housing  prices rose in May in Great Britain at their most sustained pace in six and a half years.

Long bond yields rose as the markets must absorb large offers of sovereign debt related to the various economic plans put in place around the world. This could later lead to fear that the rise in long rates may stifle the beginnings of the recovery.